Benzinga Market Playlist: Week of June 25, 2012
Some traders love to have music playing whilst trading, and here are a list of songs to keep active traders focused on market events. With lots of economic data and a European summit on the calendar this week, the songs chosen are meant to represent the upcoming events. The playlist can be found on Spotify.
1. My Hometown by Bruce Springsteen: With home prices data due out this week, a great song about small town, U.S.A. seems to be a great way to kick off the playlist. With home prices across the U.S. struggling to bottom after the collapse of the sector, the song represents the strife of the average American family in today's economy.
2. Airplanes feat. Hayley Williams by B.O.B.: On Wednesday, U.S. durable goods orders are due out, and a large component of this data release is aircraft sales. Durable goods orders tend to be correlated to U.S. GDP growth, so the data will be interesting in light of the weak economic data released last week. The consensus estimate is for a 0.4% gain month-over-month following last month's 0.2% gain, however the range of estimates is wide, from -1.0% to +1.0%.
3. Come Together by The Beatles: As previewed here, the summit of European leaders is set to begin this Thursday, June 28. Leaders from all nations and European governing bodies are set to meet to discuss the economy, among other things. As they come together in Brussels, they are going to need to come up with a bold new crisis-fighting strategy.
4. London Calling by the Clash: On Thursday morning, first quarter GDP for the U.K. is set to be released. After slipping back into recession as per the preliminary reports, first quarter GDP is expected to have contracted 0.1% year-over-year, inline with the initial estimate. A positive revision would be met with a positive pound, especially against the U.S. dollar (GBP/USD), as it would imply less chances of easing across the pond.
5. Black Friday by Steely Dan: On Friday, June 29, income and spending numbers for the U.S. are set to be released, and after weak retail sales numbers, traders will be looking for any sign of a pick up in consumer spending, the largest component of GDP. Personal spending is expected to come in flat month-over-month vs. the prior reading of +0.3%. Income is expected to have risen 0.3% following last month's 0.2% rise.
6. Born in the U.S.A. by Bruce Springsteen: U.S. GDP data is due out on Thursday, June 28, and so what better of a song than a purely patriotic one? U.S. GDP for the first quarter is expected to have grown at a 1.9% annual rate, in line with the previous estimate.
7. The Choice is Yours by Black Sheep: Each Thursday, markets get data on initial jobless claims, and this time shall be no different. With jobless data due out, it will be interesting to see not only how many new initial claims are printed but also how many of the unemployed choose to leave the labor force or accept a new job, which can be seen in the continuing claims data. The market is expecting a reading of 385,000 initial claims as compared to last week's 387,000.
8. Get a Job by Neil Young and Crazy Horse: On the theme of unemployment and with the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report due out next week, it will be interesting to see the most recent insight into the labor markets.
9. Hurts Like Heaven by Coldplay: One more song for initial jobless claims, this time about the pain of layoffs. Should claims print higher than expected, it really could hurt the market like heaven.
10. Tubthumping by Chumbawumba: On Friday, the University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Confidence survey is due out, with the market expecting a reading of 74.1, the same as the prior reading. It will be interesting to see if consumers can get back up after being knocked down with bad economic data.
11. The Victors by the University of Michigan Band: Also on the topic of the University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Confidence Survey, it seems prudent to listen to the Victors, the greatest fight song in all of sports (coming from a loyal Wolverine, that is).
12. Holiday in Spain by Counting Crows: As the European summit wraps up on Friday, investors will be hoping that new crisis fighting measures are released and that policies directed to help prevent Spain and Italy from going the way of Greece, Ireland, or Portugal are revealed. After all, who doesn't want to take a holiday on the Spanish coast? Easing efforts from the European Central Bank are expected the week after, with money markets pricing in a likely 25 basis point rate cut to the benchmark rate. This would probably devalue the EUR/USD and the euro against other major currencies, which could help Europe's tourism industry and overall growth.
13. 25 or 6 to 4 by Chicago: Also on Friday is the release of the Chicago PMI, a regional growth indicator. Last week saw weakness in other regional PMI's, and so weakness in the manufacturing-heavy Chicago region would sour sentiment. The market is expecting a reading of 53.1 as compared to last month's 52.7.
14. Run-Around by Blues Traveler: To wrap up the playlist, two more songs for the conclusion of the European summit and the press conferences that are sure to follow its official end. Leaders will most likely not disclose details until they are finalized and agreed upon, and so traders and investors may be left with half-answers and lots of unanswered questions about future policies.
15. Promises by Nero: A key theme to the European Debt Crisis has been to over-promise and under-deliver in terms of crisis fighting policies. More promises are sure to be made at this summit, however the result of those promises will only be known in time. For example, in 2010, Angela Merkel was adamant that no nation would leave the euro. However, Intrade has the odds of any nation leaving the euro by the end of 2012 at 27%. Last November, this was even as high as 60%. The recent outcome of the Greek election quelled fears of an imminent Greek exit, however, there still rests the chance of a breakup.
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