New Home Sales Rise More than Expected

New Home Sales measures the number of new single-family homes that were sold during the prior month; this report is somewhat strongly correlated to Existing Home Sales. The Survey states that 328 thousand new single-family homes were sold in March. This is better than the 318 thousand expected by analysts. This is essentially bullish for the U.S. housing market. From the report, sales of new single-family houses in March 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 328,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.1 percent below the revised February rate of 353,000, but is 7.5 percent above the March 2011 estimate of 305,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2012 was $234,500; the average sales price was $291,200. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 144,000. This represents a supply of 5.3 months at the current sales rate. An increase in new homes sold implies a healthy housing market. According to the multiplier effect, housing has an impact on the rest of the economy. Increases in homes sold suggest increased household income and in turn an economic expansion, and visa versa.
ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that New Home Sales is a leading indicator for the economy, you might want to consider the following trades:
  • Long building companies like PulteGroup PHM because more houses being sold increases demand in more homes and as a result means more demand for home builders.
  • Also, long companies like Louisiana-Pacific LPX, who manufacture and distribute products and materials for home construction.
Bearish:
Traders who do not believe that the report is a leading indicator for the general housing market, you may consider alternative positions:
  • Short building companies like DR Horton DHI because shares might be overbought, as the housing sector is still struggling relatively.
  • Also, long do-it-yourself stores like Lowes LOW or Home Depot HD because consumers are likely to just fix-up their existing house than buying a new home with economic uncertainty.
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