Market Intervention 9/15/10

The BOJ will be in the headlines intervening but I'm convinced almost all the markets from stocks to Treasuries, ETF's to commodities are manipulated. High to low November Crude has come off just shy of $3 in the last two sessions. As previously stated we hinted at a temporary pullback but remain bullish as long as the 20 day MA at $75.55 holds on a closing basis. November natural gas will close above the 20 day MA for the first time since August 4th. We feel the 50 day MA is a reasonable target in the coming weeks at $4.54. Gain exposure in November futures and November call spreads. December cocoa was higher once again but we have some work to do being prices are still down 1.8% from the beginning of the month. Some clients are long December options expecting a trade back near 2875. Failed new high, bearish engulfing candle in sugar…could a top be in sight?? A 50% Fibonacci retracement would drag March 2011 back to 20.50 cents. Sideways action in Treasuries with our expectation being a move above the 20 day MA or below the 40 day MA will signal where from here. In 30-yr bonds above 132'17 or below 130'04, in 10-yr notes above 124'21 or below 123'29. Nothing new to report in livestock, some clients cut losses on their live cattle shorts yesterday and now we're looking for bullish plays. Less than a $10 trading range the day after a record high…would have expected more upside in gold. This trade is crowded and in our opinion prices are due for a 4-6% correction. Clients have NO exposure. For the fourth session in a row silver was higher gaining just less than 1% today. Like gold we feel a correction should play out. Clients are willing to re-explore longs closer to $19/ounce. Are the wild gyrations in oats the last few sessions signaling signs of an interim top? If so could we finally get the break in grains that we've been calling for? Clients are looking to buy 2011 July or December corn on a 5% break. BOJ intervention for the first time since 2004 had the Yen down 3% today. We do not think it will help and on a contrarian play we put a small long position on; purchasing the December 120/125 call spreads for $1125 plus fees.