Which Way Wednesday

What a day yesterday.  The Dow dropped over 100 points from the open but then, at 2 pm, a miracle occurred and we recovered almost all of our losses in just 30 minutes.  We had similar action on the S&P and, as TA guru Dave Fry commented:  

Our crack addicted trading desks believe in the Bernanke Put and the global central bank put. It's quite apparent reading the news from China this morning as pundits were universally calling for more PBOC stimulus—it's QE contagion. Moody's cut their European outlook to negative which must be viewed two ways: Moody's gets no respect and it means more QE.

Speaking of which the ECB is rumored to be launching “unlimited” bond buying (QE) with “conditions” (whatever those might be). The bond buying is said to be 0-3 year maturities with the implication being the problems of austerity and debt would beClouseau-like “sol-ved” during that period. Given that sort of optimism you'd not be incorrect in assuming the ECB will need a bailout itself down the road.

That's the beauty of the HFT algos – they punch the market up all afternoon and then dump it on the mutual funds that come in after the bell and buy (for you – you retail sucker) at the day's closing prices.  Pump and dump – that's the game the big boys get to play every day and it's clear as a bell that yesterday was dump, pump and dump with 2-3 times more volume selling that buying. 

That's why this chart of On Balance Volume has such a massive divergence, again, much like the one that led to a 20% drop in the market last year that "no one saw coming."  OBV measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days – clearly SOMEONE is fleeing this market and has been since late July.  Keep in mind it was Operation Twist that "saved" us last fall and we're up a solid 27% from 1,100 on the S&P but, when we get in on ridiculous moves like we had yesterday – how can we trust…