ETF Outlook for the Week of November 25, 2013 (GLD, USO, SPY, GULF)

ETF Outlook for the Week of November 25, 2013

SPDR Gold ETF GLD

The fall of gold continued last week with the ETF losing 3.5 percent and closing at the lowest level since the first week of July. With another support level breached the next area to look for as support is the 2013 low at the $115 area.

If GLD cannot hold the 2013 low it will send the precious metal to the lowest level in over three years and it could spark a new wave of selling. Trying to pick a bottom in gold and fight the current downtrend is not the best option for investors. It appears the love affair with gold as a currency alternative and safe haven is over for the time being. Do not attempt to catch a falling knife.

United States Oil ETF USO

Oil has been consolidating the last two weeks, but with the news out of Iran that a nuclear deal has been struck it could change the situation. The initial reaction would be for oil to sell off on the news as the deal removes risk that a geopolitical situation in the Middle East could interrupt oil supplies.

Related: ETF of the Week: Oil (USO, BNO)

A deal could also lead to fewer sanctions in the future on the oil-producing Iran, which would lead to an increased supply of oil in the market. However, the temporary plan will not lift any oil or financial sanctions therefore the immediate reaction from USO may be muted this week.

PowerShares DWA Developed Markets Momentum ETF PIZ

This weekend Barron’s alluded to the fact that the U.S. markets look relatively expensive. That may not be the case, but investors looking for better valuations could look overseas at other developed nations. PIZ invests in stocks that are considered to be good momentum plays in countries such as the U.K., Japan, Germany, and Switzerland.

PIZ has been consolidating near a 2013 high the last month and could be on the verge of a major breakout to the best level since 2008. A mixture of countries with decent valuations and the momentum of the individual stocks in the ETF make PIZ an interesting play in the coming weeks.

WisdomTree Middle East Dividend ETF GULF

The Iran deal could be good for the other countries in the region, as tensions should decrease if all goes well. GULF is heavily invested in Qatar, U.A.E., and Kuwait, countries that rely on oil wealth as well and the financial sector and infrastructure. The ETF has been consolidating after hitting a five-year higher last week. The ETF is having a good year, up 27 percent and the ETF also pays a big dividend of 5.23 percent.

PowerShares WilderHill Progressive Energy ETF PUW

The name of the ETF can be a little deceiving to investors. Progressive energy may suggest the ETF invests in companies that are in alternative energy such as solar and wind. When in reality the portfolio is composed of stocks that are in transitional energy technologies that are attempting to improve the use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

The basket of 55 stocks is highly diversified with a good mix of small and large-cap stocks. The top ten holdings include industrials, energy, uranium, and chemical companies. The ETF is flying under the radar, but a new 52-week high could garner some attention. If PUW can close above $32.14 in the coming weeks it would be a major breakout to a new all-time high and very bullish for the ETF.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY

Another big week for the U.S. markets sent SPY higher by 0.4 percent last week and to a new all-time high. The ETF and overall market are looking very bullish and the momentum should continue, especially after the news of a nuclear deal out of Iran. A pullback to the $178 area could be very possible this week, however it is tough to fight the current trend. Buying on all weakness continues to be the best strategy for investors looking to be in the market heading into the end of the year.