Recession Watch: No Double-Dip

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."  Here's how some of those key recession-indicating variables are doing:

1. Industrial production: Increased by 4.67% at an annual rate over the most recent three month period from May to August.

2. Private payroll employment: Increased by 1.27% at annual rate during the most recent three month period from May to August.

3. Real GDP: Increased by 1.33% in the second quarter.  

4. Real Retail sales: Decreased by 0.56% in the May-August quarter, at an annualized rate.

5. Automakers are reporting strong sales gains in September vs. last year: Chrysler +27%, Ford +9% and GM +20%.  

8. Jeremy Piger's "recession probability" (based on four monthly variables: non-farm payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales) was updated last week for July at 0.9% (less than 1 out of 100 chance), unchanged from June, and down from 1.2% in May and 1.1% in April.