The Street Is Seeing Higher Probability Of Success For Incyte's Melanoma Treatment

BMO Capital’s M. Ian Somaiya expects higher probability of success for Incyte Corporation INCY's epacadostat+Keytruda trials in melanoma, given the PFS strength in the updated Phase I data presented at the meeting of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

Somaiya maintains an Outperform rating on the company, while raising the price target from $100 to $121.

Success Expected

“We have also raised our baricitinib sales estimates to reflect continued positive feedback from rheumatologists and our expectation for a discounted pricing strategy that should drive adoption,” the analyst mentioned, while adding, “The next key catalyst is decision by YE16 to advance epacadostat into P3 trials in other tumor histologies.”

Related Link: Bristol-Myers' Opdivo Vs. Merck's Keytruda In Front-Line Lung Treatment

Somaiya also stated that epacadostat showed response rates that were on par with Opdivo+Yervoy in treatment-naïve patients.

Results So Far

“Incyte also showed that the combo resulted in durable responses, with median PFS of 74 percent and 57 percent at 6 and 12 months, respectively,” the analyst noted.

Somaiya believes that that points to PFS of more than 12 months, which increases the probability of success in Phase 3, as compared to Keytruda.

Early data also points towards a competitive profile at least in NSCLC with an ORR of 42 percent, which compares favorably with the response rates noted in PD-1 monotherapy.

“While management has guided to possibly announcing additional Phase 3s by YE16 where sufficient depth, durability, and biomarker data are present, they have stated that additional data from these trials is not likely until 1H17,” the analyst added.

At last check, Incyte shares were down 1.08 percent at $96.77.

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