Citi analysts recently shared some retail weekend reading. They noted the first quarter represented a rough start to the year across a substantial portion of the retail space.
While some retailers decided to revise their annual EPS forecasts as they announced first quarter results, many others seemed to remain optimistic about the rest of the year – especially about the fourth quarter, which felt the impact of unseasonably warm weather last year. It should be noted that, among the 49 retailers Citi covers, 36 derive more than 25 percent of their annual EPS from their fourth quarter sales, while nine retailers get 50 percent of annual EPS from the high season.
Below is a look into companies with optimistic consensus estimates for the fourth quarter in terms of fourth quarter EPS as a percentage of total earnings, compared to those with pessimistic expectations for the period. The firm compared expectations for this year’s fourth quarter with the five-year average contribution of Q4 to annual EPS for each company.
The market might be optimistic about:
- Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF
- Nordstrom, Inc. JWN and some other department stores
- Boot Barn Holdings Inc BOOT
- Under Armour Inc UA
On the other hand, the market seems more skeptical about:
- American Eagle Outfitters AEO
- Ascena Retail Group Inc ASNA
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