Oppenheimer Starts Big Lots At Outperform, Sees 'Still Underappreciated Potential'

Oppenheimer believes the market is still under-appreciating Bog Lots, Inc. BIG’s potential. According to analyst Brian Nagel, the company has made a major transition in its business in recent years.

“Under the leadership of new CEO David Campisi and his key lieutenants, the company has tightened financial and operational controls and transitioned from a retailer focused upon closeout deals to a more consistent merchant of higher quality, value-priced products,” Nagel explains.

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Big Lots shares have surged 37.5 percent so far in 2016, but Oppenheimer still sees room for upside. The firm has initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $60 price target for the stock.

Oppenheimer expects the company’s fiscal 2016 EPS will come in at $3.50, the high end of the company’s guidance of $3.35-3.50 and above Wall Street consensus of $3.46.

Oppenheimer’s forecast represents 16 percent year-over-year earnings growth.

Nagel also sees room for margin expansion from 2015’s 4.9 rate closer to 2010’s 7.0 percent peak.

In addition, Oppenheimer is calling for $200-250 million in free cash flow annually through 2017, leaving plenty of room for further capital return programs in the future.

Finally, Big Lots is a perfect fit for Oppenheimer’s cautious view on the U.S. consumer and its current preference for companies focused on lower- to middle-income customers.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.