Goldman On Nielsen Following Q1 Results: Sell Off Creates Buying Opportunity

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Nielsen N.V. Ordinary Shares NLSN reported its 1Q16 earnings broadly in-line with consensus expectations. Goldman Sachs’ Andre Benjamin maintained a Buy rating for the company, while raising the price target from $55 to $58, citing higher EBITDA.

Nielsen reported its adj. EBITDA at $402mn, marginally lower than the GS estimate of $405mn, with the miss being driven by higher costs.

Key Takeaways

Analyst Andre Benjamin enumerated key positive takeaways from the quarter:

  • 140 networks have signed up for Total Content Ratings, doubling from 70 in February
  • The company plans to launch a product that integrates DISH set-top-box data into local ratings by the end of 2016
  • Nielsen believes STB data will help to reduce the size and frequency of future panel expansions, thereby increasing productivity
  • The company has expanded its partnership with Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.WMT

Looking Ahead

“We come out of the quarter confident Nielsen is executing well in both its Media (Watch) and Retail (Buy) businesses and is on track to deliver sustained mid-single digit organic revenue growth with high visibility (>70% from subscriptions), margin expansion and double digit dividend growth,” Benjamin wrote.

The EBITDA estimates for 2016, 2017 and 2018 have been raised by 3 percent from $1,925M to $1,979M, from $2,066M to $2,128M and from $2,201M to $2,269M, respectively, to reflect lower FX impact. The EPS estimates for 2016, 2017 and 2018 have been raised from $2.81 to $2.94, from $3.00 to $3.09 and from $3.29 to $3.35, respectively.

Benjamin added that the recent pullback in Neilson’s shares, despite solid execution, “provides opportunity to Buy,” while citing the company’s “superior competitive positioning, visibility of growth, and generation of cash which is returned to shareholders.”

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Posted In: Analyst ColorLong IdeasPrice TargetReiterationAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasAndre BenjaminGoldman Sachs
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