JP Morgan Upgrades Alnylam Pharma To Overweight

JPMorgan’s Anupam Rama upgraded the rating for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALNY from Neutral to Overweight, while reducing the price target from $111 to $81, after the recent pullback in the company’s shares.

Alnylam’s shares are down 38 percent year-to-date, versus a 25 percent decline in the NBI.

Patisiran

The Phase III APOLLO study is fully recruited and a readout is expected in 2017. “Overall, based on compelling data to date, we maintain APOLLO has a very high probability of success and this is reflected in our model (80% POS, the highest of all programs modeled),” analyst Anupam Rama wrote.

Patisiran is unlikely to be “a meaningful upside driver” before the APOLLO readout. The peak global sales are estimated at above $750M, Rama said.

Revusiran

The Phase III ENDEAVOR trial in FAC patients is recruiting earlier than expected, the analyst mentioned, while adding that full enrollment is likely in 2017 and data may be released in 2018.

TTR Pipeline

“Based on comments from Alnylam, ALN-TTRsc02 has the potential for once-quarterly subcutaneous dosing. Initial clinical data are expected by YE16 and pivotal studies could begin in 2017. Based on comments on our Spring Conference Call Series, ultimately, ALN-TTRsc02 could replace revusiran in the treatment paradigm,” the JPMorgan report noted.

“Overall, we currently model probabilities of success (POS) of >50% for patisiran, revusiran, and ALN-PCSsc, while fitusiran, ALN-CC5, and ALN-AS1 have <50% POS,” Rama commented.