Susquehanna: We're Trimming Our Apple iPhone Estimates Too

Chris Caso of Susquehanna Financial Group returned from a trip to Asia where he visited with key smart-phone suppliers, distributors, and manufacturers. According to Caso, the tone in Asia was "more upbeat" than it was over the past 6-moths as conditions "stopped getting worse." In addition, a decline in bookings that was observed in the summer appears to have been "fairly short lived." Caso continued that the environment in Asia suggests that smartphone handset units in China is not likely to grow in 2016. As such, Apple's iPhone sales are "likely to come in modestly below market expectations." Accordingly, the analyst is cutting his iPhone sales estimates based on the "visibility we received from the supply chain." Related Link:

Caso revised his iPhone shipment estimate for the December quarter to 70 million from a prior 75 million. The analyst also lowered his March quarter iPhone estimates to 55 million from a prior 58 million. Caso did however suggest that the Street's iPhone estimates were "too high in the first place." The analyst also noted that his contacts said that they expect to receive a production update over the next few weeks and it is possible that it may consist of production cuts. He added that is likely Apple suffered excess inventory which accumulated during the fourth quarter – which "isn't a good sign." "As such, we expect some degree of uncertainty to persist over the next few weeks," Caso stated. Caso joins a small handful of Wall Street analysts, including

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