Deutsche Bank: Our Mall Checks Suggests An 'Underwhelming Holiday Start'

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  • Dave Weiner of Deutsche Bank commented in a note that his 250+ store-specific data points between Thursday and Sunday revealed an ‘underwhelming' start to the holiday shopping season.
  • Weiner noted his checks ‘don't add a lot of confidence' for the overall broad retail landscape.
  • The analyst added that store traffic and inventories are ‘key concerns.'
Dave Weiner of Deutsche Bank oversaw the firm's fourth annual nationwide store calling and visit program. Between Thursday and Sunday, the analyst collected more than 250 sore-specific datapoints which led him to conclude an "overwhelming holiday start." Weiner and his team asked associates at various stores if they are seeing more or less customer traffic versus last year. 77 percent of respondents indicated traffic is "same/higher" year over year (versus 85 percent last year), marking the lowest response rate since 2011. 95 percent of checks/surveys saw "some or a lot of product on hand," although this rate dropped "quite a bit" after Friday. On the other hand, a "healthy" 35 percent of checks/surveys pointed to consumers spending more this year than last year. Weiner also pointed out that outwear and accessories were selling better than apparel and footwear. However, given the wide range of brands being surveyed, the analyst suggested that it is difficult to draw any "big-picture conclusions" as to what trend or product line is selling best.
Under Armour, Timberland A Winner
Weiner continued that
Under Armour IncUA
and
VF CorpVFC
's Timberland brand saw the most traffic strength, followed by VF's North Face concept. The analyst also highlighted
Coach IncCOH
's improved year over year traffic gain as 89 percent of associates suggested that traffic in their stores were at least equal to last year, if not more. Finally,
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Lululemon Athletica inc.LULU
and
Michael Kors Holdings LtdKORS
posted the highest "weak year over year traffic" responses as both brands didn't participate in explicit holiday promotions at all.
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Posted In: Analyst ColorAnalyst RatingsApparel, Accessories & Luxury GoodsBlack FridayConsumer DiscretionaryDave WeinerDeutsche BankNorth FaceretailersTimberland
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