JJ Kinahan on Black Friday, Star Wars, And Online vs. Brick & Mortar

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With the holiday season approaching, many investors are focusing their sights on retailers across the board. TDAmeritrade's JJ Kinahan spoke with Benzinga Friday morning to discuss his thoughts so far as Black Friday is underway. From holiday overview to consumer confidence, JJ breaks down potential Star Wars fatigue and the most important retail names to watch. Nearly 11 hours into Black Friday, JJ notes that many retailers said they had a good opening last night. He mentions that this is interesting in that people are expected to spend more despite a recent down consumer spending report. Last year, many speculated that with gas prices down, consumer spending would sky-rocket. This lead to an underwhelming performance in retail sector last year. However, JJ says he expects analysts and retail experts have judged more realistic consumer spending expectations compared to the prior year with gas prices again dropping. Weather is a "huge factor" to JJ as the west coast has been dealing with adverse weather conditions lately. The biggest competition to JJ, is online vs. brick and mortar sales as this season may be most competitive ever. One of the brands with the most hype coming into the holidays is Star Wars, which may actually be hitting a bit of a wall right now. The Street's guerrilla retail reporter, Brian Sozzi, mentioned in multiple tweets this morning that Star Wars products are simply not moving off the shelves. When asked about the "Star Wars fatigue" that Sozzi reported, JJ said this, "may be early, but lift should come through again" as Star Wars: The Force Awakens release date approaches. He mentions also that "we will see sales ramp back up", but not sure if there will be a longer term slow down. Many big retailers may be hit somewhat by a slowdown in Star Wars sales, but JJ says to watch
TGT
Target Corporation and
WMT
Wal-Mart Stores specifically for retail as a whole this season. He mentions that these huge retailers set a tone for the rest of the sector, considering how many shoppers come through their doors. Moving off these two names, JJ also is watching teen apparel stores closely along with
M
Macy's, Inc and
TIF
Tiffany & Co., who he says had big question marks coming into Black Friday. JJ says it remains to be seen how well these retailers come out of the season, although prefaces that many online retailers did very well last night. The competition between online vs. brick and mortars stores, coupled with lagging Star War product sales, bring into focus performance of retailers over the next month. Stay tuned in with Benzinga Pro for Black Friday retail sales information and coverage over the next week.
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Posted In: Analyst ColorRetail SalesExclusivesAnalyst RatingsConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment Stores
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