1,800% In Two Days: The Saga Of Aquinox Pharmaceuticals

Shares of Aquinox Pharmaceuticals Inc AQXP skyrocketed more than 350 percent Monday morning, hitting a 52-week high of $55.75.

The stock was trading at less than $2 per share last Thursday -- that's not a typo. Midway through Monday's trading, the stock is near the $38 mark.

On Friday, Aquinox hit an intraday high of $11.68 after the company reported positive secondary endpoints results from a Phase 2 leadership trial with AQX-1125 in patients with bladder pain syndrome/interstitial cystitis.

"Consistently positive results from multiple secondary endpoints have strengthened our confidence in further development of AQX-1125 for BPS/IC," said Mr. David Main, President and CEO of Aquinox in a press release on Thursday evening. "The encouraging effect of AQX-1125 observed on the primary endpoint of reduction in pain together with several statistically significant secondary endpoints, underscore the potential of AQX-1125 as a once daily, oral therapy for this debilitating disease." Soon after, investors and traders became even more bullish on the issue after a 13D filing showed Baker Bros Advisors disclosed a 39.8 percent stake in Aquinox.

The company added that the next steps for AQX-1125 including finalizing pivotal trial designs while establishing a path to potential regulatory approval from the FDA and EMA.

Baker Bros, Cowen Boosts Shares Again

On Monday morning, analysts at Cowen reiterated an Outperform rating with a price target of $14, raised from $3.

Baker Bros Advisors reported buying shares as early as June 25, when it acquired 9,700 shares at an average price of $7.251. The firm bought an addition 21,400 shares through July 8, but on July 9 it acquired a staggering 548,534 shares at an average price just shy of $2.00 per share after shares collapsed as a secondary endpoint study failed to demonstrate efficacy.

The investment firm made no changes to its holdings until Thursday when it significantly boosted its holding to 4.267 million shares.

An Interview With Jefferies Analyst Biren Amin

In an interview with Benzinga, Jefferies analyst Biren Amin said he thinks Aquinox is fairly valued after its Phase 2 results, but added that it's uncommon to miss a primary endpoint and hit a secondary endpoint value.

Assuming a market penetration rate of 25 percent, Amin models $600 million in potential 2025 revenues.

The analyst broke down his valuation a bit further. If investors are assuming a 70 percent chance of success with Aquinox's AQX-1125 (and a 12 percent discount rate), that's a per share value near $40. A 50 percent chance of success values the stock at $23.

Unfortunately, the very thing that makes Aquinox attractive -- little to no competition in this area -- makes it tough for investors seeking other ways to trade the latest news. Amin says there are no sympathy plays at the moment.