Citi Research - REIT Earning Season 'Cheat Sheet' For More Active Traders

On Friday, Citi Research led off its Weekly REIT and Lodging Report with a 'cheat sheet' for investors looking to play the odds on "earnings roulette." How could this information be valuable? According to Citi, "Over the last 3 years, REITs that out- or underperform the index on the day of their release do so by about ~130bps. Over an almost 10-year time frame, this rises to ~180-190bps, which is inclusive of the more volatile 2008/2009 period." Here is a quick overview, as REIT 2Q15 earnings are now beginning to pick up momentum between now and the first week of August. Historic Outperformance Mall REIT - Simon Property Group SPG $56.6 billion cap, 3.3 percent yield. Office REIT - Boston Properties BXP $19.25 billion cap, 2.1 percent yield. • http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/07/5668651/goldman-sachs-updates-the-big-3-office-reits Historic Underperformance Shopping Center REIT - Inland Real Estate Corp. IRC $995 million cap, 5.75 percent yield. Healthcare REIT - HCP Inc. HCP $17.4 billion cap, 6 percent yield. Top Performers - Last 3 Years  Regency Centers REG $5.9 billion cap, 3.1 percent yield - (Shopping Center).  DCT Industrial DCT $3 billion cap, 3.3 percent yield - (Industrial/Warehouse).  CorSite Realty COR $2.3 billion cap, 3.5 percent yield - (Data Center).  FelCor Lodging Trust FCH $1.54 billion cap, 1.5 percent yield - (Hotel).  Hersha Hospitality Trust HT $1.5 billion cap, 1 percent yield - (Hotel). Lagging Performance - Last 3 Years HCP Inc. makes this list as well, along with:  Mack-Cali Realty CLI $1.7 billion cap, 3.1 percent yield (Suburban Office/Multifamily).  Home Properties Inc. HME $4.25 billion cap, 4.15 percent yield (Multifamily).  Government Properties GOV $1.34 billion cap, 9 percent yield (Office).  http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/06/5570759/stifel-upgrades-mack-cali-realty-expects-big-changes-fro However, Citi believes that Home Properties and Mack-Cali "…will move out of the basement" this quarter. Notably, HME is the subject of a takeover; and CLI has a new management team in place, which Citi believes "…should improve communication, expectations management and results." Investor Takeaway Long-term REIT investors typically do not pay attention to short-term price moves, unless there has been a change to their underlying investment thesis. However, investors looking to establish a new position, or to rebalance an existing portfolio, can also benefit from being aware of these trends noted by the REIT analysts at Citi Research.