Biogen Alert From Deutsche Bank: Tecfidera Could Hit Consensus Forecast

In a report published Wednesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Robyn Karnauskas maintained a Buy rating and price target of $460 on

. The analyst expects the US Tecfidera results to be in-line with the consensus expectations. Following the disappointing performance in 1Q, the analyst expects a 9 percent increase in the net sales of Tecfidera in the US over the 1Q sales figure. The gross-to-net discount is also expected to improve by 200bps in Q2. If both this discount and volume growth continue to improve, the US sales for the full year could be in-line with the current FY2015 consensus expectations. According to the Deutsch Bank report, "Tecfidera missed last Q due to a variety of reasons, primarily because of higher gross to net discounts, slowing of prescribing due to the safety event last fall and shift in commercial focus… The co. also noted the allocation of the sales force's time may not have been ideal to support continued uptake of Tecfidera." The performance of interferon is also expected to be in-line for 2Q, with FY sales beating the consensus. Biogen's FY EPS is also expected to be in-line with the guidance range.