Analyst Says July 20 Is 'Real Crunch Point' For Greece

Greece, which deferred making key debt payments Thursday, is likely to remain a member of Europe's monetary union, an analyst said Friday. "Our central forecast remains that Greece will stay in the eurozone," HSBC's Fabio Balboni said. A survey released Friday today by Greek opinion poller Alco showed 74 percent of Greeks backing the euro, with 18 percent favoring a return to a national currency. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/05/us-eurozone-greece-poll-idUSKBN0OL0IT20150605 The poll suggested that nearly half of Greeks support major concessions to the creditors, who seek wider budget surpluses and deeper pension cuts, along with reforms to the company's labor rules. Baboni said the poll's results bolster his view that Greece will remain part of the eurozone. "But very little concrete progress has been made on the main stumbling blocks of the negotiations," according to Baboni, who sees the next key deadline coming on July 20. That's when Greece is slated for a $3.89 billion payment to Europe's central bank. "Without an agreement in place by then, the prospects of a Greek exit from the eurozone would increase," Balboni said. Greece on Thursday deferred a $333.4 million payment to the International Monetary Fund until the end of June. But if the country fails to meet that deadline, an official default would still be a month away, according to Balboni. "So we still see the July 20 payment as the real crunch point," Balboni said.