Cantor Fitzgerald: Next 6 Months Are Going To Be Interesting For Alibaba

The lockup will expire on 437 million shares (thought 100 million of those not officially until May) of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd BABA following Wednesday's market closing. If that number seems large, come September, a lockup will expire on 1.6 billion shares.

Youssef Squali, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst, was on CNBC Wednesday to discuss why the next six months are going to be interesting for Alibaba.

People May Have Acted Before D-Day

"I do think that over the next probably several months, it will probably be a bumpy ride for the stock," Squali said. "Remember, the stock settled above $100 for an extended period of time and lost quite a bit.

"It's actually been one of the worst performers in our group. So, the fact that it is still relatively flat on a day like this only tells you that the people may have actually acted before the D-Day."

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Interesting 6 Months

He continued, "But six months from now, if today people are talking about the 437 million shares that are coming on the loss, six months from now we are going to see 1.6 billion shares or almost two thirds of all shares outstanding. So, I think the next six months are going to be interesting for this name, to say the least."

Amazon And Alibaba: The Only Large-Cap E-Commerce Growth Story

Squali was asked what he thinks about Stifel's Scott Devitt's upgrade of Alibaba, based on the company's fundamentals. He replied, "I think Scott and I see eye to eye on this one, because when you look at the growth, the underlying growth rate, this is still one of the fastest growing e-commerce plays in the world. You really have Amazon and these guys. That's [sic.] the only two candidates for a large-cap looking for growth in this category."