Canada's Rig Count Just Fell Below 2009 Levels...But What Does It Mean?

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A recent report by Mackie Research provided updated numbers for the Canadian oil and gas rig count. According to the report, Canadian active rig counts are tracking below 2009 levels.

The Numbers

Canada lost 13 rigs last week, down from the 38 that went offline the week before. However, the active rig count is still falling during a time of year that is usually strong for the oil and gas industry.

The U.S. lost 87 rigs this past week versus a loss of 90 rigs the week before. The total active rig count in the U.S. is now down 25 percent since the end of October. The Bakken is the worst-hit basin, with a 29 percent drop in active rigs during that time.

2015 Demand

The report included 2015 CAPEX projections for the Canadian oil and gas industry. Analysts are predicting a 22 percent reduction in CAPEX in 2015 for exploration and production (E&P) names.

The report noted extreme variability within the projections, however, with year-over-year CAPEX changes for the top 10 Canadian E&P names ranging from a 33 percent drop to a 50 percent increase.

Counter-Seasonal Declines

The 3 percent decline in Canadian rig counts last week continued the trend of falling rig counts during a part of the year that usually sees production ramp-ups.

The Canadian rig count is now down 39 percent year-over year and is currently 36 percent below the five-year average rig count for this week.

Historically, Canadian rig count increases an average of 32 percent quarter-over-quarter from Q4 to Q1, but this year the numbers continue to move in the opposite direction.

The Claymore/SWM Canadian Energy Income ETF ENY is up 2.5 percent on Monday, while the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) USO has gained almost 2 percent.

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