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Doug Kass' 15 Crazy Predictions For 2015

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In an article on The Street, Doug Kass detailed a list of 15 surprise predictions for the coming year.

  1. Faith in central bankers will be tested across Europe, Japan and the United States. Kass sees the price of gold soaring to $1,800 to $2,000 per ounce while the Volatility Index rises above 30.
  2. U.S. stock market “falters” and experiences a 10 percent loss for the year. The S&P Index makes a yearly high in the first quarter and closes the year at yearly lows as a global economic slowdown intensifies in the June to December period.
  3. Declining oil prices fails to help the economy as the savings from lower fuel prices are eaten up by higher costs for food, rent, insurance, education, etc.
  4. Hackers (perhaps from North Korea) attack New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq computers resulting in “the mother of all flash crashes.”
  5. A three-decade bull market run in the bond market comes to an end in the coming year as European yields jump to where the U.S. 10-year yield resides.
  6. China devalues its currency by more than 3 percent versus the U.S. dollar as the country loses its manufacturing edge and its trade surplus has disappeared.
  7. Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) valuation tops $1 trillion despite the next product upgrade cycle being a while away. Shares will also prove to be the best-performing large-cap in the coming year.
  8. U.S. government legislation is introduced that allows for repatriation of foreign cash at a low tax rate.
  9. The Energy sector transforms from the worst-performing group in 2014 to the best-performing group in the first half of 2015, only to fall back later on in the year as crude oil dips to under $50 by the end of 2015.
  10. Governor Jeb Bush declares his candidacy to run for U.S. president and will become a “big favorite” to win the presidency over Secretary Hillary Clinton.
  11. Food inflation “accelerates” after Russia suspends exports of wheat.
  12. Home prices fall in the second half of 2015 and builders lose pricing power.
  13. Carl Icahn calls Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) his “new Netflix” resulting in a bidding war between Google and Facebook to acquire the company. Google eventually wins the battle and acquires Twitter for $60 a share. Also, two hedge funds assume an activist stake in Cisco and force CEO John Chambers out.
  14. Berkshire Hathaway makes its largest acquisition in history, acquiring either an energy, retail or construction/equipment company for more than $55 billion.
  15. A derivatives blow-up will “harm our markets,” once again.

Posted-In: Carl Icahn China Doug Kass flash crash Gold OilAnalyst Color News


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