SunTrust Sees Positives For eCommerce In Adobe's Data

SunTrust analyst Robert S. Peck released a note on Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE shopping data.

According to Peck, “Adobe saw overall Cyber Week (Thanksgiving thru Cyber Monday) ecommerce growth of 20 percent, similar to ChannelAdvisor's 20.6 percent estimate. For the holiday period to date (Nov. 1 – Dec 1) Adobe estimates +14 percent, consistent with comScore’s 15 percent.

“Further, Adobe noted that the top 25 e-retailers saw growth of 25 percent over Cyber Week vs. smaller retailers at 5 percent. Following the call we feel incrementally more confident in our 15 percent holiday growth estimate.

“This supports our expectation for strong growth from [Amazon.com Inc. AMZN] N. America in 4Q. Further, [eBay Inc EBAY] performed well in the 2H of November and over the holiday weekend, improving on a weaker October.”

Peck highlighted five areas regarding the Adobe data:

1) “Adobe’s Data is Robust - data covers >4,500 online retailers (17 of top 20 and 69 of top 100), and $7 out of every $10 transacted. We feel the Adobe data is some of the most robust we’ve seen.”

2) “Earlier Sales, More Discounting – clear shift to earlier holiday season echoed - discounting has been slightly heavier thus far, reaching a peak on Thanksgiving. Trends are more normal following the weekend but this could impact margins.”

3) “Mobile Strong – traffic surged with several outlets reporting ~50 percent of all traffic mobile (Wal-Mart claimed 70 percent). Overall mobile sales trailed traffic growth at 29 percent of the total on Thanksgiving and 21 percent on Cyber Monday, per Adobe. PayPal saw a 43 percent increase in mobile shoppers.”

4) “11/11 Singles Day Pop – Singles Day proved to be a global phenomenon with a surprise spike in both discounts and sales. Discounting on 11/11 moved from 16.5 percent last year to 19 percent this year and sales were +16 percent, slightly higher vs. estimated.”

5) “Social Increasing – paid impressions are rising on Facebook (social in general) as organic reach is reduced. Further, Adobe feels that social continues to be the most efficient channel, while search (Google) is the largest for driving shoppers. Growth in search is coming from Google Shopper Ads.”