Should Investors Worry Over Earlier And Longer Black Friday?

Eric Beder of Wunderlich Securities published a note to clients on what to expect from several retailers operating in the teen apparel space. “This month, we see teen retailers offering Black Friday-like deals, even before Black Friday actually occurs,” Beder wrote. “Deep discounts in this sector are certainly going to hurt margins.”

continues to suffer in both its domestic and international operations which Beder describes as being in “free fall.” The analyst observed how the entire back of a store he visited was on clearance, consistent with the company's fourth month in a row of year over year sales declines at both Abercrombie and Hollister. Beder expects gross margins to be “down considerably” in the fourth quarter and “we do not expect a happy holiday season for either brand.”

reduced overall promotions, according to Beder's observations but stores continue to discount seasonal items to drive traffic. Beder believes that despite a better fashion offerings, the company is “just barely” holding on to market share in the teen space. As such, the company's recent turnaround is a near-term event as it will face additional pricing pressure from its peers.

continues to “aggressively promote to unsuccessfully win back” market share within the teen space through social media and other online ventures. Beder adds that the company's new product offers is not attracting traffic to its stores. In fact, the analyst notes that the company is seeing “poor traffic, weak consumer spending and strong competition” which limits any recovery potential.

According to Bender,

continues to face intense competition and continues to see some of its strength erode due to a previous fashion mishap. However, the analyst does admit that the company's fashion assortment continues to improve but it is unclear if this will translate to improved sales among its core customers.

is Bender's “winner” for November as the company increased its average sale per customer for the fifth month in the row. The analyst attributes the company's success to its decision to raise its prices to attract a “more fashion-driven” customer base. However, the analyst does note that he observed an “alarming amount” of clearance items as the company is certainly not immune to retail competition.