Angie's List Fourth Quarter Results: Buying Opportunity Or Further Downside Ahead?
On Wednesday, Angie's List (NASDAQ: ANGI) reported its fourth quarter results. The company announced an EPS of $0.05, missing the consensus estimate by eight cents. Revenue of $68.8 million beat the consensus estimate of $68.5 million.
Angie's List guided its first quarter revenue to be $71.5 million to $72.5 million, below the consensus estimate of $74.1 million.
Investors reacted negatively, and shares traded lowered immediately following the earnings release. Is a further downside warranted -- or are shares attractive at current valuations?
Barrington Research: Attractive Entry Point
Jeff Houston, analyst at Barrington Research,said shares appear to be attractive following Wednesday's after market decline.
“Gross member additions declined three percent year over year and cost per acquisition increased 33 percent as Angie rolled out a new member-join platform, experimented with product positioning (e.g., ecommerce), and marketing dollars were diverted away from member signup given the aforementioned changes,” Houston said in a research note to clients.
Houston believes Angie's operates a solid business with a sound business model, and believes the recent 15 percent decline “could prove to be an attractive entry point as the Q4 changes come to fruition in 2014.”
“Furthermore, we like its revenue visibility, differentiated offering, ability to increase advertising prices, and operating leverage.”
Shares are Outperform, rated with a price target of $25.
Stifel: Management Could Do Better to Calm Investors
Jordan Rohan, analyst at Stifel, said Angie's quarterly results contained a mix of positives and negatives.
Angie's List was able to reach the high end of revenue guidance, but “while reaching guidance is a positive, the cost to acquire members is increasing, growth in advertising clients continues to decelerate and net advertiser ARPU (average revenue per user) ex-ecomm is faltering,” he said in a note to clients. “In our opinion, management has not outlined a sufficient plan to improve these metrics.”
“Internet platforms with large addressable markets (TAM) need to consistently deliver solid operating metrics that cycle upward toward a larger future business opportunity,” Rohan added, noting the company's third quarter results showed signs of weakness which carried over to Wednesday's earnings.
Despite a 15 percent decline in share prices after the earnings report, Rohan felt it necessary to downgrade shares to Hold from Buy, with no price target. Previously, the analyst had a $25 price target.
Deutsche Bank: Staying on the Sidelines
Lloyd Walmsley, research analyst at Deutsche Bank, thought Angie's List's quarterly report contained plenty of reasons for investors to be concerned.
“Angie's List's 4Q results leave us more confused as to what's going on at Angie's List and how the company solves its challenges,” he said in a note to clients.
“Sales force efficiency showed no improvement six months after the ramp in hiring, renewing our concerns around P1 SP revenue," Walmsley added. "Problems deepened in the consumer-facing side of the business with CPA spiking in the quarter, reflecting more defensive marketing/growing competition.”
“While the company pointed to changes in the user funnel, either something is not working in the existing funnel or marketing test execution is poor, or both.”
Walmseley, like Rohan, feels management has done an insufficient job in reassuring investors. “Commentary around impending changes was vague,” he said.
Shares are Hold rated, with a price target lowered to $13 from a previous $16.
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