UPDATE: Stifel Downgrades Halcon Resources Corporation to Hold, Removes $8.50 PT Following Equity Offering, Reduced 2014 Outlook

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In a report published Monday, Stifel analyst Amir Arif downgraded the rating on
Halcon Resources Corporation
HK
from Buy to Hold, and removed the $8.50 price target. In the report, Stifel noted, “We are downgrading HK from Buy to Hold to reflect the August 8th equity offering and our reduced 2014 outlook. The equity offering added about 12% new shares with the proceeds simply used to reduce debt, diluting the share count. Additionally, we are lowering our 2014 production estimate 11% from 47 mboe/d to 42 mboe/d, as we clean up our 2014 outlooks, which places our number below the consensus of 47 mboe/d. Official 2014 production guidance will most likely be provided by the company with 3Q results. The impact of the larger share count and our reduced 2014 outlook reduces our 2014 CFPS from $1.69 to $1.37. As a result, the name is trading at 7.0x 2014E EV/EBITDA, which is not that attractive and results in our $8.50 target price being reduced to a fair value of $6.00/sh (7.5x 2014 EBITDA). Given the increased share count, reduced upside, and risk of 2014 consensus estimates moving lower, we are downgrading the name from Buy to Hold. Operationally, production growth should be strong in the coming year and new Utica data points will be coming out in 2H. The strong production growth is reflected in our numbers and fair valuation, but the one upside that could drive the name higher, which is not fully reflected in our fair value range, would be the firming up of its Utica upside. However, in our view, Utica exposure/upside can be better captured through our recently upgraded GPOR.” Halcon Resources Corporation closed on Friday at $5.07.
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Posted In: Analyst ColorDowngradesAnalyst RatingsAmir ArifStifel
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