Analysts All Over Fusion-io Following 24% Decline on Heels of Q4 Results, Q1 Guidance Below the Street

Fusion-io FIO shares tumbled 23 percent Thursday morning after a Q4 earnings miss and a reduced Q1 forecast below Street consensus. FIO saw multiple ratings updates and price target cuts after the miss; here's a rundown:
  • Benchmark - Downgraded from Buy to Hold, lowered PT from $25 to $13. Believes FIO will need to “significantly lower” pricing to attract new, large orders as its Apple and Facebook business matures. Said FIO's guidance “makes us a bit nervous” by relying on a ramping up of very large hyperscale customers starting in 2Q 2014.
  • Mizuho - Downgraded from Buy to Neutral, lowered PT from $22 to $13. Intensifying competition lowers operating margin to 2-5%, may make it difficult to improve profitability in future. Unlikely to see upside to stock unless an acquisition surfaces.
  • Stifel Nicolaus - Downgraded from Buy to Hold, removes $24 PT. Sees FY2014 guidance as “questionable.” Cited increased competition, lower Flash purchase obligations, and an overall lack of credibility for the downgrade.
  • Morgan Stanley - Reiterated Overweight rating, $29 PT. Remains Overweight on potential strategic interest. Aggressive pricing and expanded product lines could accelerate growth back toward the 40% range by the second half of FY2014. Recommends buying on weakness.
  • Barclays - Reiterated Equalweight rating, lowered price target from $15 to $13. Says “aggressive” 20 percent revenue growth target is unlikely amidst increasing competition.
  • Piper Jaffray - Reiterated Neutral rating, lowered PT from $15 to $12. Still warrants premium multiple over competitors based on strong customer base, history of success, and flurry of M&A activity in the sector.
In addition, the following firms lowered their price targets on FIO:
  • Craig Hallum - Maintained Hold rating, lowered PT from $15 to $12
  • Credit Suisse - Maintained Outperform rating, lowered PT from $23 to $17
  • Goldman Sachs - Maintained Neutral rating, lowered PT from $14 to $13
  • Janney - Maintained Neutral rating, lowered PT from $15 to $12
  • JPMorgan - Maintained Neutral rating, lowered PT from $21 to $15
  • Lazard - Maintained Buy rating, lowered PT from $23 to $17
  • Needham - Maintained Buy rating, lowered PT from $20 to $18
  • Pacific Crest - Maintained Outperform rating, lowered PT from $19 to $17
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