JP Morgan Overweight on Positive Rx Data from Gilead Sciences

JP Morgan has published a research report on Gilead Sciences GILD after monthly Rx's were released by IMS this morning. In the report, JP Morgan writes, "Monthly Rx trends for the first month of 4Q are trending ahead of Street expectations, showing +4.1% q/q volume growth for Gilead products. The consensus estimate is 3.2% q/q growth (JPMe: +4.3% q/q). Meanwhile, weekly Rx's through the first 5 weeks of 4Q11 indicate +4.4% q/q growth. We note that Rx data exclude non-retail channel and hence underestimate actual sales. Market growth across all HIV drug classes looks good, with quarterly growth of 3% q/q and 7% y/y. Meanwhile, Gilead's market share gains continued in October, whereby Gilead's molecules reached new highs (TDF now 41%, FTC now 34%) while key competing products reached new lows in market share. In light of above trends, and anticipating a full recovery of ADAP funds in fiscal 2H (fiscal year ends – March 31, 2012), we are maintaining our 4Q US HIV franchise sales estimate of $1,012M (cons: $1,002M)." JP Morgan maintains its Overweight rating and $50 price target on Gilead Sciences, which is currently trading down $0.36 from yesterday's $40.67 closing price.