Buckle's April Comps Rise Marginally - Analyst Blog

The Buckle, Inc. BKE, the retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories for men and women, reported a 0.8% year-over-year rise in comparable-store sales (comps) for the four weeks ended May 3, 2014. Moreover, net sales of $75.6 million increased 2.4% from the prior-year four-week period ended May 4, 2013.

Shares rose 3.6% on the index following the announcement.

Notably, Buckle had reported negative comps in the past 5 months. Comps declined 1.8% in Mar 2014, 1.4% in Feb 2014, 6.6% in Jan 2014, 2.8% in Dec 2013 and 0.6% in Nov 2013.

However, comps for the thirteen-week period, ended May 3, 2014, fell 0.9% year over year, whereas net sales inched up 0.7% to $271.7 million from the prior-year thirteen-week period ended May 4, 2013.  

Buckle is not the only retailer which has registered a rise in its sales performance last month. Other retailers such as Zumiez Inc. ZUMZ, L Brands, Inc. LB and Costco Wholesale Corp. COST have also witnessed an increase of 8.2%, 8% and 5%, respectively, in April comps.

For Buckle, sales in the Men's category rose 7% year over year, driven mainly by strong performance of denim, casual bottoms, shorts, knit shirts and accessories. Men's category contributed nearly 42% to Apr 2014 sales.

Sales in the Women's category were down 1% year over year and it contributed 58% to Apr 2014 sales.

On a combined basis, accessories sales increased 5.5% in the reported month constituting nearly 8% of April's net sales, while footwear sales rose 2% constituting nearly 7% of the net sales.

Buckle is scheduled to report its first-quarter fiscal 2014 earnings on May 22, 2014. Our proven model does not conclusively show Buckle as likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate this quarter. This is because Buckle carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a negative Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of 1.28% (the Most Accurate Estimate stands at 77 cents whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate is 78 cents).

For a stock to outperform, it needs both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3. The combination of Buckle's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

As of May 8, 2014, Kearney, NE-based Buckle operated 452 retail stores across 43 states.

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