Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) Beat Earnings? - Analyst Blog

Tractor Supply Company TSCO, the specialty retailer is slated to post its first-quarter 2014 results on Apr 23, 2014. In the previous quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 4.6%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors this Past Quarter

Tractor Supply's fourth-quarter results benefited mainly from improvement in both the top line and margins. The top line improved primarily driven by strong comparable-store sales (comps) performance and favorable weather conditions. On the other hand, the rise in comps was driven by robust performances in core consumable, usable and edible (C.U.E) products and seasonal merchandise. Taking cue from these encouraging factors, this farm and ranch store retailer provided a favorable outlook.  

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Tractor Supply is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Tractor Supply currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents per share.

Zacks Rank #2 (Buy): Tractor Supply's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) when combined with 0.00% ESP makes surprise predictions difficult. We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:  

BNC Bancorp BNCN, Earnings ESP of +8.33% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Alaska Air Group, Inc. ALK, Earnings ESP of +7.14% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

The Walt Disney Company DIS, Earnings ESP of +3.13% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).