Will Amgen (AMGN) Miss This Earnings Season? - Analyst Blog

Amgen Inc. AMGN is set to report first quarter 2014 results on Apr 22 after the market closes. Last quarter, the company had posted an earnings surprise of +10.37%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

While products like Enbrel, Prolia, Xgeva and Kyprolis should continue performing well, Aranesp sales will remain under pressure due to lower demand in the U.S. and Europe due to competition and price cuts.

Meanwhile, results will also be affected by higher operating costs as the company continues to invest in its late-stage pipeline.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Amgen is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Amgen is 0.00% since the Most Accurate Estimate stands at $1.81, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy): Amgen's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) has little effect on the predictive power of ESP because the Zacks Rank #1 when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements, i.e., a positive Zacks Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 or #3.

Biogen Idec Inc. BIIB has an Earnings ESP of +8.14% and holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Biogen will report first quarter earnings on Apr 23.

Eli Lilly and Co. LLY has an Earnings ESP of +4.29% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. Eli Lilly will report first quarter earnings on Apr 24.

Actavis plc ACT has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Actavis will report first quarter earnings on Apr 30.