Technical Forecast for US and Euro Stock Markets
EuroStoxx just held on to 2597 but below here today risks a retest of 2589/83 support & a second chance to buy in to medium term longs in the hope of a double bottom, with a stop below the 7 month uptrend line at 2570.
Immediate resistance is 2616 but above here 2626/28 should be a struggle. If we manage a push through here we could reach 2641/43, possibly 2652.
Dax futures held resistance at 7637 but above here 7658/61 is likely to hold any strength again. However 7691/96 is another tough obstacle & although unlikely, a break allows another test of the recent high at 7728/39.
7570/65 support has been holding but watch for a break to take us towards Feb lows at 7536. Good support from here down to 7525 should be a bargain buying opportunity but we need a stop below 7510 for a test of 100 day Moving Average at 7470.
FTSE has formed a triangle over the past 5 sessions so we wait to see how it breaks. 6280 is the support but below here we should test 6246/40. This could hold the low today with a bounce very possible but be ready to stop out on longs below 6225 for 6214.
A break above 6300 targts Fibonacci resistance at 6318 then Friday’s high of 6328. On a push through here we should see 6343, possibly last week’s high of 6359/62 which should hold again this week, to try shorts with a stop above 6370 for a 6396 target. Exit longs here and try shorts with a stop above 6405. Above here there is little to stop a run to 6500/05.
S&P has formed a small bearish double top but bounced off 1511/10 support on Friday. This level is very significant being the 5 week up trend line. A break below here is possible & more importantly confirms the topping pattern for a move to 1506 & even 1503/02 would not be a surprise this week where we meet the 21 day moving average so we would expect a bottoming out here.
Resistance at 1521/22 of course & this held on Friday as expected. Highly unlikely but if we do find the strength to push through 1523 we should reach for the next target of 1527. These are the highs of Dec 2007, in what is becoming a dangerously over bought market.