The Rationale Behind Cowen's Airline Bearishness


27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


In a note released on Wednesday, Cowen lowered its ratings on a host of airline stocks, including Air Canada

ENTER TO WIN $500 IN STOCK OR CRYPTO

Enter your email and you'll also get Benzinga's ultimate morning update AND a free $30 gift card and more!

(TSE: AC) (OTC: ACDVF), Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE: ALK), American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL), JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU), Spirit Airlines Incorporated (NASDAQ: SAVE) and United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE: UAL).

The firm, however, raised its ratings on WestJet Airlines Ltd. (TSE: WJA) (OTC: WJAFF).

Significant Multiple Expansion


Want Private Access to Benzinga Analyst?

Check out the latest strategies our team of experts are using every week so that you can always adapt to the market like the pros!—Get FULL Access to This Week's Webinar Here.


Analyst Helane Becker noted that airline stocks and multiples have improved significantly, as demand and business improved post the U.S. presidential election. The share gains, according to the analyst, are the result of multiple expansion and not earnings improvement.

Margin Compression A Worry

Although expecting unit revenues to improve by 0.7 percent in 2017 compared to a 4.5 percent drop in 2016, Cowen feels margins are likely to be down due to higher costs on jet fuel and labor. The firm expects capacity of airline stocks in its universe to improve by 2.5 percent on top of the 3.5 percent growth in 2016, with the domestic market driving growth. Given the margin pressure, the firm forecasts a 20 percent decline in adjusted net income in 2017, with the first quarter seeing the steepest drop.

Cowen's Top Picks For 2017

Cowen highlighted the following as its top picks for the upcoming year: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL), SkyWest, Inc. (NASDAQ: SKYW), Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) and Volaris Aviation, given their underperformance in 2016 due to company-specific issues.

Ratings, Price Targets

  • Air Canada: Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform; $15 price target.
  • Alaska Airlines: Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform; price target raised to $95 from $92.
  • American Airlines: Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform; $50 price target.
  • Delta Airlines: Maintained at Outperform; $57 price target.
  • JetBlue: Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform; $23 price target.
  • Southwest Airlines: Maintained at Outperform; price target raised to $55 from $44.
  • Spirit Airlines: Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform; price target raised to $58 from $53.
  • United Continental: Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform; price target lowered to $75 from $77.
  • WestJet Airlines: Upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform; price target raised to $22 from $19.

27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


Posted In: Analyst ColorLong IdeasNewsUpgradesDowngradesPrice TargetReiterationTravelAnalyst RatingsMoversTrading IdeasGeneralAirlinersairlinesCowenHelane BeckerVolaris Aviation