AstraZeneca Drug Trial Failure Has Major Implications To Its Pipeline


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AstraZeneca plc (ADR) (NYSE: AZN) announced that its anti-platelet drug, Brilinta, had failed to meet the primary end point in the EUCLID trial.

Goldman Sachs’ Keyur Parekh maintained a Sell rating on the company, with a price target of 4,000p.

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“This was a 13,885-patient trial examining Brilinta vs. clopidogrel for the prevention of cardiovascular events in symptomatic peripheral arterial disease (“PAD”). The full trial results are to be published at the AHA meeting in November 2016,” Parekh mentioned.

The failure was disappointing, and the analyst believes it highlighted some inherent risks in AstraZeneca’s broader pipeline.

The failure of the EUCLID trial follows the failure of Brilinta in the SOCRATES trial for stroke.

“While Brilinta continues to be tested in the ongoing THEMIS trial (2018 readout) for CV disease in diabetes, PAD had been the main market expansion opportunity for Brilinta, and therefore EUCLID was key,” Parekh explained.

Looking Ahead

AstraZeneca had expected Brilinta sales to grow from US$847 million in 2016 to US$1.85 billion in 2020.

However, the analyst pointed out that Brilinta had a relatively slow launch and that a meaningful part of the growth outlook was likely to have been dependent on the success of EUCLID.

Parekh estimates sales of US$821 million for Brilinta in 2016, with sales of US$1.2 billion by 2020.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorShort IdeasHealth CareReiterationAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasGeneralGoldman SachsKeyur Parekh