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"The greatest fundamental risk is the impact on demand in the UK and Eurozone–confidence, employment and income are the drivers of auto sales," analyst David Leiker wrote in a note.
The analyst noted that the U.K. represents 19 percent of Western European registrations. About 90 percent of the vehicles sold in the U.K. are imported, mostly from the eurozone. Key brands are Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) (13 percent), Vauxhall/General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) (11 percent), Volkswagen AG (ADR) (OTC: VLKAY) (OTC: VLKPY), BMW, AUDI AG NPV (OTC: AUDVF), Nissan Motor Co Ltd (ADR) (OTC: NSANY) and Mercedes.
Commenting on the impact on auto suppliers, Leiker said, "Based on exposure to the UK for an average supplier, we believe BREXIT represents a potential ~100–150bp headwind to revenue/profit during 2017."
On truck companies, the analyst sees a headwind of about 100bp. Leiker said the impact for WABCO and PACCAR is likely greater given higher exposure (at an estimated 6–7 percent of total sales), whereas Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) would benefit from a weaker pound given costs outweigh revenues in the UK.
Crypto Whales Are Loading Up — Are You?
New research shows the biggest crypto buyers are back. And this time? They could hold for the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024. You don’t want to miss the next massive crypto bull run like we saw in 2020 and 2021. To know exactly what’s going on and what to buy… Get Access To Benzinga’s Best Crypto Research and Investments For Only $1.