Raymond James Revises Red Robin Estimates Lower After CEO, Q1 Announcements


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Hamburger chain Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB) announced Wednesday that CEO Denny Marie Post will step down immediately, and the company simultaneously pre-announced disappointing first-quarter metrics.

The Analyst

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Raymond James' Brian Vaccaro maintains a Market Perform rating on Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.

The Thesis

Post's resignation as CEO will take place immediately and follows a "challenging" 12-18-month period for the company, Vaccaro said in a Thursday note.

The burger chain struggled to report encouraging dine-in comps in a competitive environment where larger competitors have gained market share, the analyst said. 

Management also pre-announced a weaker-than-expected first-quarter same-store sales decline of 3.6 percent versus expectations of negative 1.5 percent, Vaccaro said. The company attributed 100 to 150 basis points of the decline to poor weather, he said. 


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Red Robin's disappointing guidance prompted Raymond James to revise its 2019 book EBITDA estimate lower from $121 million to $115 million. The new estimate is short of Red Robin's own guidance of $121 million to $126 million.

In addition, Raymond James lowered its 2020 EBITDA estimates from $120 million to $114 million, and this revision assumes that comps will improve to slightly positive.

Price Action

Red Robin shares were down 2.41 percent to $27.54 at the time of publication Thursday. 

Related Links:

McDonald's, Restaurant Brands, Chipotle Are Morgan Stanley's Top Restaurant Picks In Challenging Year For Sector

Red Robin's Catalysts Aren't Playing Out As Expected, Canaccord Says In Downgrade

Photo by Cbraccialini/Wikimedia


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Posted In: Analyst ColorNewsGuidanceReiterationRestaurantsManagementAnalyst RatingsGeneralBrian VaccaroRaymond James