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Leerink sees potential in Translate Bio Inc (NASDAQ:TBIO) mRNA-based candidate for cystic fibrosis patients with Class I mutations.
The Analyst
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Leerink's Geoffrey Porges initiated coverage of Translate Bio with an Outperform rating and $24 price target.
The Thesis
Around 12 percent of patients with cystic fibrosis have Class I mutations — the most severe form of cystic fibrosis and one with no therapeutic treatment, Porges said in the initiation note. (See the analyst's track record here.)
Patients with the Class I mutation cannot produce the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator protein and do not respond to CFTR correctors and potentiators, the analyst said.
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Translate Bio is developing MRT5005, which encodes for a functional CFTR protein when it is delivered by a nebulizer to the lung, Porges said. The drug recently entered a Phase I/II clinical trial in adults with Class I and II mutations in cystic fibrosis, and safety and early results are expected in the fourth quarter.
Porges said he expects the product to reach $1.8 billion in revenue from Class I cystic fibrosis patients if approved. He forecast a 15-percent probability for successful development in Class I cystic fibrosis and a 10-percent probability for success in other mutations.
Leerink projects a drug launch in late 2022 and for Translate's break-even point to come in 2026. The biotech will need additional financing during its development phase, Porges said.
The Price Action
Translate shares were down 0.25 percent at $15.90 at the close Monday.
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Crypto Whales Are Loading Up — Are You?
New research shows the biggest crypto buyers are back. And this time? They could hold for the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024. You don’t want to miss the next massive crypto bull run like we saw in 2020 and 2021. To know exactly what’s going on and what to buy… Get Access To Benzinga’s Best Crypto Research and Investments For Only $1.