Sell-Side Sees Opportunity To Bag Shares Of Coach On Post-Earnings Pullback


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Investors turned their backs on Coach Inc (NYSE:COH) after Tuesday’s mixed earnings report, but Wall Street stood loyally by.

The Buckingham Research Group called the 15-percent, $7.50 sell-off “overdone,” while UBS and Baird Equity Research tagged the pullback a buying opportunity. Each maintains Buy ratings on the stock Wednesday.

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Time To Calibrate

Considering Coach’s sales miss, low guidance and strong run into earnings, analysts had expected a sell-off. But not necessarily to the extent seen.

“While we anticipated that a potentially noisy FQ4 report could drive a near-term pullback in shares, we’re somewhat surprised by the magnitude of the selloff,” Baird analysts Mark Altschwager and Drew North wrote in a Wednesday note.

Buckingham’s Scott Krasik called criticisms “short-sighted” and failing to account for impending catalysts.

“COH is one of the few ‘investable’ stocks in retail today,” Altschwager and North affirmed, calling Street expectations “lofty.”

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Baird acknowledged a path to sustainable, double-digit growth in earnings per share driven by Kate Spade integration and maturation as a multi-brand company.

“Following impressive, largely on-plan execution of the Coach-brand turnaround amid a deteriorating category/retail environment, we’re confident betting this team can execute well on the Kate Spade integration, especially with benefit of Coach-brand earnings, S.W. integration experience and a now-stabilizing handbag category backdrop,” Altschwager and North wrote.

Krasik was similarly encouraged by underestimated three-year synergies from Kate Spade, potential for additional merger activity and Coach’s status as the only U.S.-based multi-brand luxury holding firm.

At the same time, he and UBS analysts Michael Binetti and Carlos Castellanos expect Kate synergies to well exceed two-year guidance of $50 million.

“At current levels, we do not believe the stock is accounting for positive sales trends and margin expansion beyond FY18, nor the potential accretion from future M&A and/ or the potential that growth in the North American handbag category ever reaccelerates,” Krasik wrote.

The closure of more than 100 Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS) sites could further compound aforementioned effects, UBS noted.

Baird lowered its price target from $54 to $52, while Buckingham lowered from $58 to $56 and UBS from $55 to $50. At the time of publication, Coach was trading down on the day at $40.46.

Related Links:

Retail To Finish Q2 Earnings Season As Challenges ContinueCramer: Coach Is Now Out Of The 'Doghouse'


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Posted In: Analyst ColorEarningsLong IdeasNewsPrice TargetReiterationAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasBairdBaird Equity ResearchBuckingham ResearchCarlos CastellanosDrew NorthMark AltschwagerMichael BinettiScott KrasikUBS