In Q1, Chipotle's Big Beat Not Enough To Budge This Bear


27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG)'s earnings and revenue beat in its

ENTER TO WIN $500 IN STOCK OR CRYPTO

Enter your email and you'll also get Benzinga's ultimate morning update AND a free $30 gift card and more!

first-quarter report may have impressed some investors, but at least one Wall Street analyst isn't budging on his bearish stance.

Stephens'

Will Slabaugh maintains an Underweight rating on Chipotle's stock with a price target boosted from $325 to $350 even though many of the restaurant's metrics came in better than he expected. Chipotle's adjusted earnings per share of $1.60 came in ahead of the analyst's $1.46 per share estimate while same-store sales of 17.8 percent also beat his 17.0 percent estimate.

However, Slabaugh stated that Chipotle's strong acceleration was "widely expected" and may have seen easier year-over-year comparisons (for example same-store sales fell 28.7 percent in Q1 of 2016) as the quarter lapped the food safety scare.


Want Private Access to Benzinga Analyst?

Check out the latest strategies our team of experts are using every week so that you can always adapt to the market like the pros!—Get FULL Access to This Week's Webinar Here.


Not Good Enough

Slabaugh further noted that Chipotle's initiatives in digital ordering and catering could make up a "much larger piece" of the company's business over time, but the analyst is concerned over a lack of improvement in two-year sales trends, which also raises traffic questions.

Slabaugh is also concerned around new unit AUVs (average unit volume) and that investor expectations are calling for a recovery in AUVs faster than expected. While this is a legitimate concern, the analyst did note that new stores are being opened in stronger markets, which modestly improves returns.

Finally, Slabaugh acknowledged it is "reassuring" Chipotle showed margin improvements on sales leveraging and cost controls; the unfortunate reality may be those incremental improvements to achieve a low-to-mid 20s restaurant level margins (versus peak margins at 28 percent).

Of particular note, the analyst didn't reference Chipotle's unauthorized payment activity.Related Links:15 Stocks To Watch For April 26, 2017Appetite For Brinker Abated As Analyst Awaits Signs Of Subsiding Traffic Weakness_________Image Credit: By Guillaume Capron from Issy les Moulineaux, France [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


Posted In: Analyst ColorEarningsNewsGuidanceShort IdeasPrice TargetReiterationRestaurantsAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasGeneralChipotleRestaurant EarningsrestaurantsWill Slabaugh