We Must Protect This House: Kohl's Hoping Under Armour Launch Will Offset Mounting Headwinds


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Baird sees a path to recovery at Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) in the form of recent Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA) (NYSE:UAA) launch and tight cost controls amid challenging retail environment for department store operators.

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Kohl’s reported a fourth-quarter EPS beat ($1.44 vs. $1.33 consensus), driven by better-than-expected margins due to lower markdowns and improved fulfillment productivity. Comps of -2.2 percent were essentially in line with reported November to December results (-2.1 percent) and consensus (-2.1 percent).

“Big picture, it was a disappointing holiday season for Kohl’s and the broader sector (Q4 transactions/store -6 percent, ATV +3.8 percent on mix, reduced discounting) but final results topped reduced expectations,” analyst Mark Altschwager wrote in a note.

Rating, Justification

However, Altschwager maintains his Neutral rating on the stock, saying that F 2017 targets won’t be easily achievable amid a very challenging department store backdrop.


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Management acknowledged that traffic may need to improve to “-3 percent” from “-5–6 percent” to hit the upper end of comp guidance (flat to down 1 percent), suggesting some risk to estimates.

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“Achieving even flat comps remains an uphill climb given structural traffic declines (~MSD percent), competitive threats (Amazon, off-price), and consumer spending shifts away from apparel,” Altschwager continued.

These pressures are largely reflected in the company’s initial F2017 outlook, which calls for EPS of $3.50–$3.80 (bracketing prior consensus). The analyst cut his F2017 EPS estimate by 2 percent to $3.62, near the midpoint of guidance.

As of now, the risk/reward for the shares appears to be balanced. On one hand, investors may embrace higher dividend yield (now >5 percent), but would be concerned with overhangs such as traffic headwinds, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and border tax uncertainty.

At last check, shares of Kohl’s rose 3.54 percent to $42.36. The analyst has a price target of $44.

Image Credit: By MB298 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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Posted In: Analyst ColorEarningsNewsGuidancePrice TargetReiterationAnalyst RatingsMoversBairdMark Altschwager