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It may still be too early to consider buying battered steel and iron ore stocks. According to Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson, the global steel market is about to take another downward turn.
Australia’s Port Hedland just set a new record for March iron ore exports at 39.5 Mmt and exports from Brazil in March came in at 29.9 Mmt. Combined, the two largest ore exporters generated 69.9 Mmt of exports last month, up 4.9 percent month-over-month and 3.6 percent year-over-year.
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In addition, iron ore inventories at China’s ports were at 97.0 Mmt as of the beginning of April, up 2.3 percent week-over-week.
“From the increase in seaborne supply (& notably in the share of exports to China) + higher China port inventories, we infer evidence that the seasonal rout typically defining 1Q is over & see downward price pressure imminently ahead,” Johnson explains.
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U.S. steel imports came in at 2.69Mmt in March, up 30.4 percent month-over-month, a bad sign for U.S. producers looking to raise prices.
Axiom maintains Sell ratings on the following iron ore and steel stocks:
- Rio Tinto plc (ADR) (NYSE: RIO)
- Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE: CLIF)
- Joy Global Inc. (NYSE: JOY)
- United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X)
- United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI)
- Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT)
- GATX Corporation (NYSE: GMT)
- Trinity Industries Inc (NYSE: TRN)
Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.
Crypto Whales Are Loading Up — Are You?
New research shows the biggest crypto buyers are back. And this time? They could hold for the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024. You don’t want to miss the next massive crypto bull run like we saw in 2020 and 2021. To know exactly what’s going on and what to buy… Get Access To Benzinga’s Best Crypto Research and Investments For Only $1.