Carvana Analysts Cast Shadow Over Q4 Earnings: 'Less Opportunity For Upside Surprise'

Online used car company Carvana Co (NYSE:CVNA) is set to report fourth-quarter financial results after market close Thursday.

Here are the key earnings estimates from analysts, what analysts are saying and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Carvana to report fourth-quarter revenue of $2.53 billion according to estimates from Benzinga Pro.

The company reported revenue of $2.84 billion in last year's fourth quarter. The company has beaten analysts’ estimates for revenue in two of the last four quarters.

Analysts expect Carvana to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of a loss of 87 cents. The company reported a profit of 39 cents per share in last year's fourth quarter.

Carvana reported quarterly losses in each of the first three quarters of the fiscal year. The company has beaten analysts' estimates for earnings per share in the last four straight quarters.

Related Link: Carvana Plans Turnaround With Strategic Restructuring, Stock Rebound And Debt Overhaul: Report

What Analysts Are Saying: Recent sales strength for Carvana could be transitory, Wedbush analyst Seth Basham said in a recent investor note.

"We believe some of the sales strength could be transitory, and we continue to believe that CVNA cannot sustainably accelerate retail unit growth to +DD without cost to gross profit per unit (GPU) and SG&A, and ultimately EBITDA," Basham said.

The analyst maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $40 to $50.

Basham sees fourth-quarter and full-year results from Carvana coming in below consensus estimates.

"While CVNA has surprised to the upside in the last two quarters, we see less opportunity for an upside surprise in 4Q unless costs were cut more than expected."

Here are other recent analyst ratings for Carvana:

JMP Securities: Reiterates Market Outperform, $60 price target

Raymond James: Downgrade shares from Market Perform to Underperform, no price target

Key Items to Watch: Recent reports indicate Carvana is continuing to work on restructuring efforts that include reducing debt to end concerns of bankruptcy. Investors will look for comments on cash and liquidity and lowered debt levels.

With quarterly losses reported, investors could also be looking to see how much runway the company has without the need to raise capital.

Another key item to watch will be the gross profit per vehicle sold. Third quarter GPU was $5,952, which was up 70% year-over-year. The company said it expects its fourth-quarter adjusted GPU to be over $5,000.

"We have always believed Carvana will be the largest and most profitable automotive retailer, and our focus on unit economics over the past several quarters led to third-quarter results that clearly validate the differentiation and profitability potential of our business model," Carvana CEO Ernie Garcia said after third-quarter results.

The number of vehicles sold could also be a key metric with 80,987 units sold in the third quarter. The company said it expects fourth-quarter units sold to be down from the third quarter.

Carvana announced the launch of same-day vehicle delivery in several large cities such as Sacramento, Philadelphia and Oklahoma City in February. An update on the geographic reach of the company could also be an item for investors to watch.

CVNA Price Action: Carvana shares trade at $48.23 versus a 52-week trading range of $6.45 to $61.61. Shares of Carvana are up over 400% in the last year.

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