Economists Respond To April's Surprising PCE Figures: 'Inflation Isn't Slowing Down Quickly Enough'


27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose to 4.4% year over year in April, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.

The increase, which was ahead of both the projected 4.3% rise and March’s 4.2% surge, indicates potential stubbornness in inflation rates. Projections of further Fed increases are now reinforced, aligning with the FOMC’s intimations that high borrowing rates may persist.

Read also: 10 Stocks Reacting To April PCE: Marvell Technology Leads The Rally

Economists were quick to weigh in on these surprising numbers. Peter Essele, Head of Portfolio Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, noted the potential impact on the Fed’s upcoming actions: “The rise in prices puts a June hike back in play, perhaps even greater than a quarter percent hike in a last-ditch effort by the Fed to put out the inflationary fire once and for all.”

Meanwhile, Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist for LPL Financial, focused on the persistence of inflation and its potential repercussions on the market: “The PCE report this morning suggests that inflation isn’t slowing quickly enough as a broad range of indicators points to a stronger economy.” However, Krosby emphasized the market’s focus on debt ceiling negotiations, hinting at their potential to alleviate concerns.

In the wake of the latest PCE Price Index data, traders increased their expectations for an interest rate hike in June. Market-implied probability for a 25-basis-point rise jumped to 46% from a previous 42%. A hike by the end of the July meeting is now almost 70% probable.

Read next: Congressional Debt Ceiling Talks Gain Momentum, Critical Deal In Sight ‘Because Default Is Unacceptable’: Report

Photo: Shutterstock


27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


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Posted In: Analyst ColorMacro Economic EventsNewsTopicsEconomicsFederal ReserveGeneralExpert IdeasInflationInterest RatesLPL FinancialPCEPeter EsseleQuincy Krosby