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The weather heading into the Christmas holiday was "much warmer" than it was last year and "slightly warmer" than the five-year average, analysts at Credit Suisse said in a research report.
The Analysts
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Credit Suisse's William Featherston, Betty Jiang, William Janela and three others.
The Thesis
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report a 110-to-120-Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 22, according to Credit Suisse. This reading would fall notably short of the 237-Bcf withdrawal for the same week one year ago, but in-line with the five-year average of a 107-Bcf withdrawal. As a whole, natural gas inventories fell to 3,329 Bcf, which would narrow the deficit versus last year to 31 Bcf and pushes up the surplus versus the five-year average to 147 Bcf.
Over the past month, the weather-adjusted S/D has been oversupplied by around 1.3 Bcfd versus last year but around 1 Bcfd undersupplied versus the five-year average, the report said. The storage withdrawal season will likely end with inventories exiting the winter at around 1.5 Tcf, the analysts said.
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"This implies valuations are modestly attractive vs. the long-dated (2021) futures curve of $2.83/MMBtu and our normalized forecast of $3/MMBtu," according to Credit Suisse.
The analyst's top E&P picks are:
- Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)
- Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR)
- Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:APC)
- Cimarex Energy Co (NYSE:XEC)
- Extraction Oil & Gas Inc (NYSE:XOG)
Credit Suisse's top picks in gas are:
- EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT)
- Range Resources Corp. (NYSE:RRC)
Natural Gas: Morgan Stanley's 2018 Outlook
Credit Suisse Unleashes Wave Of New Energy Coverage
Crypto Whales Are Loading Up — Are You?
New research shows the biggest crypto buyers are back. And this time? They could hold for the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024. You don’t want to miss the next massive crypto bull run like we saw in 2020 and 2021. To know exactly what’s going on and what to buy… Get Access To Benzinga’s Best Crypto Research and Investments For Only $1.