Eurozone Worries Crushing Japanese Confidence

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On Thursday, in a survey released by the Bank of Japan, confidence
among Japanese
manufacturers fell more than anticipated. Analysts had forecast a reading of negative 2, while the actual figure was negative 4. The reading may be seen as fairly significant, as Japan's economy remains dependent upon its manufacturing and exporting sector. Japan's Nikkei dropped over 1.60% in Thursday's trading, as Japanese investors may have become concerned over the future prospects of Japan's economy. Investors in the US appeared to brush Japan's struggles aside early Thursday morning, as futures rallied into the open. Surprising positive data coming in from Europe and a seemingly improving jobs picture in the US may have set a positive mood among US equity investors on Thursday. In the Japanese survey, businesses cited uncertainty due to the Eurozone situation, a strong yen, and supply chain issues due to flooding in Thailand. The first two issues the businesses have may be largely interrelated. That is, Japan's yen may have strengthened because of issues in the Eurozone. As the crisis continues to simmer, the yen may remain strong against other currencies. For real-time updates regarding the developments in the Eurozone, traders may wish to signup for a free trial of
Benzinga Pro
. A strong yen may cut into the confidence of Japanese exporters, as it would make the price of Japanese goods more expensive to foreign consumers, and therefore may hurt demand. The Bank of Japan has intervened a few times this year in an effort to drive down the value of the yen. Following the tsunami disaster in March, the Japanese yen rose sharply. Insurance companies may have been forced to dump assets to raise cash, leading to sharp increase. Back then, central banks around the world worked in tandem to drive down the value of the yen. Yet, the yen rapidly bounced back in the following months as the situation in Europe deteriorated. Then, the Bank of Japan intervened again—this time unilaterally—in October. Other central banks, perhaps worried about the value of their own currencies, did not offer support. If Eurozone issues continue to worsen, the yen may stay strong. Currency traders may prefer to hold the yen over the euro, even if the Japanese economic situation is declining. However, if the Eurozone situation improves, funds may shift out of the yen back to the euro, weakening the yen and improving the environment for Japan's manufacturers.

ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that Japanese equities are undervalued despite the negative economic data might want to consider the following trades:
  • Buy Japanese stocks listed on US exchanges such as Sony SNE or Toyota TM. Both companies are manufactures, and trad.ed higher on Thursday despite the Japanese confidence data.
  • Take a position on the Nikkei. Traders could do this through an ETF, such as MAXIS Nikkei 225 Index Fund NKY.
  • Go short the yen against the euro. Most of the yen's strength may have come at the expense of the euro, and if that trend reverses, that could be an ideal currency trade.
Bearish:
Traders who believe that the Japanese economic situation is likely to decline may consider alternative positions:
  • Buy the yen. Even with the yen at elevated levels, it could continue to move higher. The Bank of Japan's interventions in the past have failed to achieve their goal, leading to only a small selloff in the yen. Traders may wish to wait for another invention, and use the dip as an opportunity to take a position.
  • Short Japanese stocks. Traders can take a speculative short position through a leveraged bear ETF such as ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan EWV
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.
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Posted In: NewsSector ETFsFuturesOptionsForexGlobalEcon #sEconomicsMarketsTrading IdeasETFsBank of JapanEurozone
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