National Oilwell Cut To Sell, Citi Sees 18% Downside In 2016


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Following the recent rally in its share price, National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) is the third-best performing large cap OFS stock year-to-date. However, Citi’s Scott Gruber expects the share price to fall to $30 before year's end, since expectations are likely to be revised down meaningfully for Q4 and 2017.

Gruber downgraded the rating on the company from Neutral to Sell, while lowering the price target from $37 to $30.

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Gruber believes that “a trade down toward $30 is likely despite quality cash generation characteristics longer term for NOV.”

Lower Expectations

The analyst now expects a lower bottom to the active floating rig count, with the Q4 EBITDA declining from the Q3 levels.

“Some of NOV’s short cycle businesses are starting to turn the corner but the impact is limited by revenue mix while drill pipe destocking should continue for several quarters,” Gruber mentioned.

In addition, according to offshore driller capex commentary, the offshore rig aftermarket is expected to continue to decline, offsetting the benefit from domestic land rig upgrades.

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New research shows the biggest crypto buyers are back. And this time? They could hold for the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024. You don’t want to miss the next massive crypto bull run like we saw in 2020 and 2021. To know exactly what’s going on and what to buy… Get Access To Benzinga’s Best Crypto Research and Investments For Only $1.


Posted In: Analyst ColorShort IdeasDowngradesPrice TargetAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasCitiScott Gruber