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Cantor Fitzgerald expects in-line result from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA) when it reports its first-quarter numbers on August 11.
The Street expects adj. EPS of $0.62 on revenue of $4.526 billion (41 percent year-over-year). The brokerage projects EPS/revenue of $0.73/$4.147 billion (+27 percent year-over-year). Cantor's estimates exclude the contributions from the acquisitions of Yokou and Lazada, both of which closed during the quarter.
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"Growth in active users and monetization to drive healthy growth in China retail revenue. We expect active user growth to increase 19 percent Y/Y, helping contribute to a healthy increase in revenue," analyst Youssef Squali wrote in a note.
Squali, who expects the company's China retail revenue growth at 27 percent to $3.216 billion, noted that the tweaks across mobile and desktop versions should boost monetization. The analyst projects international commerce revenue to grow 16 percent to $328 million.
Further, the analyst expects the company to reiterate its 2017 outlook for revenue growth of 48 percent plus year-over-year and 36 percent plus excluding acquisitions. Current consensus is at 41 percent year-over-year, reflecting a mix of organic and reported growth forecasts across the Street.
On the macro front, Squali noted that the China's retail sales growth in calendar second quarter averaged about 10.2 percent year-over-year versus about 10.3 percent in the first quarter, implying continued growth in consumer spending despite overall economic slowdown.
At the time of writing, shares of Alibaba were up 0.33 percent to $84.87. Squali has a Buy rating and $95 price target on the stock.
Crypto Whales Are Loading Up — Are You?
New research shows the biggest crypto buyers are back. And this time? They could hold for the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024. You don’t want to miss the next massive crypto bull run like we saw in 2020 and 2021. To know exactly what’s going on and what to buy… Get Access To Benzinga’s Best Crypto Research and Investments For Only $1.