Apple Music Has 11 Million Subscribers - Will It Move The Needle For Apple Or Taylor Swift?

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) executives have informed USA Today that the company has attracted 11 million trial members to Apple Music.Two million of those users are on the family plan, though it appears they are enjoying a free trial as well."It's hard to say how many will stick around," Apple expert Sean Udall told Benzinga. "Here's the one thing: I suspect a much higher percentage of family plan accounts will stick."Udall has frequently praised the family plan, which allows up to six individuals to enjoy Apple Music for $14.99 per month. Standard subscriptions go for $9.99 per month."I think the family plan is actually a really good deal, especially if you have more than two people on it -- a mom, a dad, a kid or two," said Udall. "Even for two people I think it's pretty good. I really like it. I kind of thought, 'It's going to be the same as Spotify, I doubt it's going to be much different.' There's a couple quirky things I don't love. In general I really like it."

Is 11 Million Truly Impressive?

Apple was quick to brag about reaching its milestone for trial users, but not everyone is impressed."Eleven million sounds pretty bad to me," former hedge fund manager Cody Willard told Benzinga. "How many iPhone users [are] out there? How many iPad? We're talking about several hundred million devices. And we've got less than 10 percent penetration for a free product that was the entire operating system upgrade offering in the last month?"Willard doesn't expect Apple's numbers to remain so high when the trial period is over."Mind you, it's 11 million people trialing it," he said. "If you think even 10 percent is going to pay $10 a month when the trial is over, you're smoking crack. Apple Music will have a few million subscribers in six months and it won't move the needle for Apple or Taylor Swift."

Counterpoint: '11 Million Is Solid'

Udall is much more impressed with Apple's results."I think 11 million is solid," he said. "I think that number will grow a lot. I think the family plan is close to the right price. If it was even a buck or two cheaper it would be super attractive. On the individual deal, $7.99, maybe even $8.99, something cheaper than $10 a month could be quite a bit more sticky."Even without a price reduction, Udall expects the trial numbers to top 20 million."I bet you'll see Apple launch more trial periods," he concluded. "They'll do this trial, but it wouldn't surprise me if on each new iPhone release they basically [offered another] trial."Disclosure: At the time of this writing, Louis Bedigian had no position in the equities mentioned in this report.