What's Coming For Large-Cap Pharma Stocks This Earnings Season?


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Q2 earnings season for large-cap pharmaceutical stocks is set to kick off when Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE: LLY) reports results on Thursday morning. Piper Jaffray analyst Richard Purkiss released a report this week outlining what the market can expect once the action begins on Thursday.

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Peak Forex Pressure?

According to Purkiss, Q2 will likely mark the peak of the forex headwinds that the big pharma companies have been facing. A strong dollar is bad news for Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), which has the highest international exposure (61 percent of revenue) of all the large-cap pharma stocks.

Pfizer’s leading international exposure is followed by Merck & Co, Inc. (NYSE: MRK) at 58 percent, Lilly at 53 percent and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE: BMY) at 49 percent. AbbVie Inc (NYSE: ABBV) will face the least forex headwinds, with only 47 percent of its business taking place internationally.


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Exclusivity Loss

Purkiss noted that Q2 marked the end of exclusivity for a couple of major drugs. Bristol-Myers’ quarter will be its first without exclusivity on Abilify, and Pfizer lost its exclusivity on Celebrex in Q2 as well.

Predictions

  • Lilly: Piper Jaffray’s forecast is $0.01 above consensus earnings per share (EPS) and about $45 million above consensus revenue estimates.
  • Bristol-Myers: Piper Jaffray is calling for a 6 percent revenue beat and EPS of $0.39, $0.03 above consensus.
  • AbbVie: Piper Jaffray is mostly in-line with consensus on AbbVie, calling for EPS of $1.06 (versus consensus of $1.06) and revenue of $5.5 billion (versus consensus of $5.6 billion) for the quarter.
  • Merck: Piper Jaffray’s Q2 revenue estimates of $9.7 billion are in-line with consensus, but the firm sees a $0.02 EPS beat on stronger-than-consensus margins.
  • Pfizer: Piper Jaffray sees a miss on the horizon for Pfizer and is calling for EPS of $0.50 (versus consensus of $0.51) on revenue of $11.1 billion (versus consensus of $11.4 billion).
Image Credit: Public Domain

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Posted In: Analyst ColorBiotechHealth CarePreviewsAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasPiper JaffrayRichard Purkiss