What's Afrezza's Ultimate Potential For MannKind?

In a report published Thursday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Adnan Butt commented that MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) has seen its Afrezza slow to take off and first quarter sales are likely to miss consensus estimates.Butt noted that the consensus estimate for MannKind is approximately $3.9 million, which is based on IMS estimates of approximately $0.2 million. The analyst said that this could be too high unless there is inventory build. In addition, 2015 full year sales expectations of $49 million also appear high based on trajectories implied by third-party data.Butt said that he had expected a "tough slog" but nevertheless he lowered his Afrezza sales forecasts for 2015 to $5 million (from $46 million), for 2016 to $118 million (from $150 million), and for 2019 to $539 million (from $845 million), while peak sales are now forecasted in the $2 billion to $3 billion range versus $4 billion previously forecasted.Nevertheless, the analyst suggested that the concept underlying Afrezza "remains elegant" and as long as the post-approval studies read clean, it will be a "big drug."Looking forward, the analyst identified three potential catalysts for the stock:1. European Union filing plans in 2015 in which MannKind will count on Sanofi SA (NYSE: SNY) for an MAA filing where visibility on approval would be a positive.2. Afrezza post-approval study details as timelines have implications for label expansion.3. Launch trajectory over the next 12-18 months.Shares remain Outperform rated with a price target lowered to $10 from a previous $13.