April 6, 2015 5:50 PM | 2 min read |
The IMS Weekly Harvoni-Viekira-APP suggests that the Hep C scripts of
Gilead Sciences Inc
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(NASDAQ: GILD) are tracking towards $3.5-$3.6B, representing a significant beat of the 1Q15 consensus of about $2.6B in the US.In the report published Monday, RBC Capital Markets analysts maintained an Outperform rating on Gilead Sciences, while noting the first impressions from the Harvoni-Viekira-APP. "…we estimate Q1 script predicted revenues of $2.6B for Harvoni based on 80% capture rate and 40% gross to net, and $734M for Sovaldi based on 77% capture rate (from Q4:14) and 22% gross to net. We also assume a 90% 1-month refill rate, and 1.3x ramp of Harvoni NRx vs Sovaldi at launch. We also add $200M for Harvoni inventory build. That implies $3.5-3.6B USA total for Harvoni+Sovaldi."The analysts further highlighted:• Symphony monthly sales estimate Harvoni/Sovaldi Q1 sales of as high as $3.9-4B, potentially due to greater inventory build. • As a reminder, total Harvoni scripts are above Sovaldi peak in Q2:14 of 8130 (with $3B Q2 USA sales)• 2015 HCV could be $13.4B USA (above cons ~ $10.2-12B USA, $14.6B WW).• As a reminder, GILD reported Q4 $3.8B WW (Harvoni inventory buy-up), which beat cons $3.5B WW.The analysts hosted the 2015 RBC HC conference, which was attended by GILD management and a HCV/NASH/HBV doctor panel. "GILD management remains confident on volume increasing in time and gradually opening up, as they expect treatment to still be focused on advanced F3-F4 patients in the near term."In a separate note, RBC Capital Markets analysts mentioned data from the Afrezza weekly IMS prescriptions for week 10, while maintaining an Outperform rating on
MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD).Prescription data:• TRx: 171 (161 prior week); +6.2% wk/ wk• NRx: 147 (143 prior week); +2.8% wk/ wkMarket share data:• Afrezza: 0.05% (0.05% prior week)• Apidra: 2.94% (2.88% prior week)• Humalog: 40.56% (40.49% prior week)• Novolog: 45.97% (46.06% prior week)Trends vs. RBC and consensus:• Afrezza IMS based sales estimate: ~$154,000 based on cumulative 895 TRx YTD and an assumed net price of $158-195.• RBC: $46.1M for 2015. TRx must grow 9.2%-9.9% to reach our 2015 forecast (9.6%-10.3% prior week).• Consensus: $4.6M for 1Q based on Bloomberg vs. IMS sales estimate of ~$0.154M
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